“Never go against a Sicilian when death is on the line“! –from The Princess Bride
With acetaminophen-induced hepatic failure, King’s College Hospital (KCH) Criteria have been helpful for predicting death. While the Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) was not designed by a Sicilian (to the best of my knowledge), it is more sensitive at predicting death than KCH Criteria (Liver Transplantation 2012; 18: 405-412, & editorial 384-86) .
SOFA measures organ dysfunction by evaluating each of the following on a 0-4 scale: respiratory, hepatic, coagulation, cardiovascular, neurologic, and renal.
In the cited study, 125 consecutive adult patients (mean age 38 years) with acetaminophen-induced acute liver failure were evaluated. KCH criteria had highest specificity (83%) and lowest sensitivity (47%). The SOFA score had the best discriminative ability. A SOFA score >7 during the first 96 hours predicted death or transplantation with a 95% sensitivity and 70.5% specificity. Other specific predictors of poor outcome included higher lactate levels, worsened coagulation parameters, and need for mechanical ventilation. In this cohort, 67 (54%) survived with medical management, 35 (28%) died and 23 (18%) received a liver transplant.
While sensitivity and specificity will vary based on pretest probability/specific population, what is clear is that relying on KCH criteria alone would be unwise.
Additional references:
- -J Pediatr 2011; 159: 813. Study of ALF in young infants. 38% were indeterminate, ~14% NH, 12% herpes. n=148. 60% survived w/o OLT, 24% died, 16% OLT
- -Hepatology 2010; 53: 567. 18% of indeterminate ALF may be due to acetaminophen toxicity.
- The King’s College Criteria identify two groups of patients that have a poor prognosis with acetaminophen induced liver failure (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/King’s_College_Criteria)
- Arterial pH < 7.3 (taken by sampling of blood from an artery)
- All three of an international normalized ratio (INR) of greater than 6.5, serum creatinine of greater than 300 micromoles per litre and the presence of encephalopathy (of grade III or IV). These three are markers of coagulopathy, kidney function and mental status.
- -J Pediatr 2009; 155:801. Diagnostic evaluation in ALF –wide variation. Often not tested for AIH, wilson’s, HAV, HBV
- -NEJM 2009; 361: 2105. Changes in FDA labeling of analgesics. ~30,000 hospitalizations /yr due to acetaminophen overdose in U.S. –1/2 inadvertent overdose. Maximum dose -650mg.
- -Hepatology 2007; 46: 966. AASLD public policy. It is leading cause of acute liver failure in U.S –50% of cases with 30% mortality rate. 500 deaths annually. 10% of cases may occur in those receiving the proper doses. In single year, acetaminophen causes more deaths than all the years of statins.
- -JAMA 2006; 296: 87-93. Prospective study of daily 4gm acetaminophen in healthy volunteers. (stayed at research facility). ALT >3 ULN in 38%. Resolved over 6 days.
- -Liver Transplantation 2006; 12: 682.
-Hepatology 2005; 42: 1364-72. 74 pts died & 23 needed Tx during 6 yr period at 22 tertiary care centers. 48% of cases were unintentional overdoses. - -J Pediatr 2002; 140: 522. Predictors of outcome p acetaminophen ingestion.