A recent study (ZJ Ward et al. NEJM 2017; 377: 2145-53) pooled observations from 41,567 children and adults.  They extrapolated this data to created 1000 virtual  populations of 1 million children through the age of 19 years.  They performed simulations to predict future obesity levels.

Key findings:

• Given current levels of childhood obesity the authors predict 57.3% of today’s children will be obese at the age of 35 years.  They defined obesity for adults as BMI ≥35 and for children as 120% or more of the 95th percentile.
• For children with severe obesity at age 2 years, approximately 80% will be obese at 35 years; whereas approximately 95% of severely obese 19 year olds will be obese at 35 years of age.
• About half of the total prevalence of obesity at age 35 years begins in childhood in these models.

Because these are simulations, these projections could be influenced by changing circumstances.  Though, the authors note that these projections have corresponded well to measurable trends thus far in NHANES data.

My take: The increasing rates of obesity projected in these models will have profound effects for health but has implications for a wide range of issues: transportation, housing, social, etc.

South Kaibab Trail, Grand Canyon