Projected 20-Year and 30-Year Survival Rates for Pediatric Liver Transplant Recipients (U.S.)

A recent study (MG Bowring et al. JPGN 2020; 70: 356-63) provides data on pediatric liver transplantation (LT) survival rates and projected survival rates.

This retrospective cohort study included 13,442 first-time pediatric (<18) LT recipients from 1987-2018.

Key findings:

  • Projected 20-year survival rate for pediatric LT from 2007-18: 84.0%
  • Prior 20-year survival rates: 72.8% (1997-2006 cohort) and 63.6% (1987-1996 cohort)
  • Projected 30-year survival rates for pediatric LT from 2007-18: 80.1%
  • Prior 30-year survival rates: 68.6% (1997-2006 cohort) and 57.5% (1987-1996 cohort)
  • Projected outcomes with split LT (28% of 2007-2018 cohort) are similar to outcomes with whole LT

My take: While projections can overestimate and underestimate survival rates, the clear trend has been a remarkable improvement in long-term outcomes.  This published data can provide current expectations when counseling families, though with ongoing improvements in management/development of tolerance, the hope is for even better outcomes.

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