Risks of Vaccines Compared to COVID-19 Infection in 12-17 Year Olds

NY Times: Covid Is a Greater Risk to Young People Than the Vaccines (July 4, 2021)

This article elaborates on the risks of vaccination, especially due to myocarditis, compared to the risks posed by COVID-19 infection. Even using very cautious estimates, the authors find that the risks of hospitalizations, cardiac morbidity, and deaths are likely to be much lower in those who receive the vaccine.

Key points:

  • “Among the 6.14 million Americans 17 and under who have been fully vaccinated, there have been 653 possibly related hospitalizations lasting a day or longer…. If that rate holds, it means that if all 73 million Americans ages 17 and under are eventually vaccinated, there will be around 7,700 hospitalizations.”
  • “So far, 326 Americans age 17 and younger have died of Covid-19.”
  • “If the coronavirus were eventually to infect all 73 million children in the United States, we would conservatively expect Covid-19 to be responsible for around 14,600 hospitalizations….[and] lead to over 27,000 additional hospitalizations from the [MIS-C] syndrome.”
  • Unlike hospitalizations related to vaccines which have typically been brief and uneventful, “Covid-related hospitalizations in adolescents can be long and complicated, with nearly one-third requiring patients to enter the intensive care unit.”
  • “Bad things inevitably happen to a small number of people after any vaccination, a few caused by the vaccines, but most not…The virus is more dangerous.”

My take: 12-17 year olds are at less risk from COVID-19 infection than other age groups, however, this risk is still greater risk than the risk of vaccination. Protecting them with immunizations also protects other vulnerable populations and may decrease the risk of vaccine-resistant variants.

Related article: Eric Topol NY Times: It’s Time for the F.D.A. to Fully Approve the mRNA Vaccines An excerpt: “Now more than 180 million doses of the Pfizer vaccine and 133 million of Moderna’s have been administered in the United States, with millions more doses distributed worldwide. In the history of medicine, few if any biologics (vaccines, antibodies, molecules) have had their safety and efficacy scrutinized to this degree…it’s frankly unfathomable that mRNA vaccines have been proved safe and effective in hundreds of millions of people and yet still have a scarlet “E”.”

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