Funny SNL skit: https://youtu.be/hPtH43VmvJI
Last year, the AGA stated that pre-endoscopy COVID testing is not needed:
- AGA Update: Pre-endoscopy COVID Testing Is Not Needed (Sept 2021)
- AGA Guidelines: Pre-endoscopy COVID-19 Testing No Longer Needed (May 2021)
- These guidelines were applicable to institutions with adequate PPE and pre-op screening for COVID symptoms
This has turned out to be good advice:
A Hann et al. Gut 2022; http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/gutjnl-2022-327053. Open Access! Impact of pre-procedural testing on SARS-CoV-2 transmission to endoscopy staff
In this retrospective study, “during a 20-month period until December 2021 using PPE and three different test approaches: no testing (n=4543), rapid antigen (RA) testing (n=682) and RT-PCR testing (n=10 465). In addition, 60 endoscopies were performed in patients with proven COVID-19. Not a single staff member became infected with SARS-CoV-2 during the 20 months analysed; vaccination rate of the team was 97%.”
The authors note that routine testing of clinical team was not performed; thus, they cannot exclude the possibility of asymptomatic infections.
My take (borrowed in part from authors): “PPE is highly effective for avoidance of SARS-CoV-2 transmission during upper or lower GI endoscopies.” Pre-op testing for COVID has many downsides: increased costs, delays in care, potential exacerbation of health disparities, and detrimental effects to endoscopy efficiency (especially with inconclusive results)
From Eric Topol: The imminent BA.5 vaccine booster
- “There are no data for a BA.5 booster in people…Each year the flu vaccine quadrivalent program is updated using mice data, so there’s certainly a precedent for using such data.”
- “It’s actually striking that in 2 months from the June 28th FDA meeting, there is a BA.5 vaccine booster made at scale. That is finally in keeping with all the excitement about the plasticity of the mRNA vaccine platform, that it could be ideal for rapid updating.”
Vaccines have been estimated to have saved more than 20 million deaths. The Lancet Infectious Diseases new release: COVID-19 vaccines are estimated to have prevented 20 million deaths worldwide in the first year of the vaccine program, modelling study find
Omicron has been associated with lower rates of MIS-C in children compared to other surges –95% less than alpha. WSJ: Covid-19 Complication Among Children Fades in Latest Wave of Virus.
Getting boosted is important for those >50 years. There was a 29-fold reduction when comparing 2 boosters vs unvaccinated and a 4-fold reduction when comparing 2nd booster vs 1 booster. CDC: Rates of COVID-19 Cases and Deaths by Vaccination Status
Since May 2021, “those living in counties that voted 60% or higher for Trump in November 2020 had 2.26 times the death rate of those that went by the same margin for Biden. Counties with a higher share of Trump votes had even higher mortality rates…. previous polling has shown that belief in misinformation is highly correlated with being unvaccinated. Kaiser examined several common pieces of misinformation such as the idea that the government is exaggerating the severity of the pandemic, or that the vaccines contain a microchip. Kaiser’s poll found that 94% of Republicans believed one or more false statements about the vaccines.”
Related blog post: Perception of COVID-19 Risk, Vaccine Uptake and Media Source
A couple recent articles indicate a lot of reasons for concern.
First of all, it is important to recognize that even among persons less than 55 years of age, COVID-19 was the leading cause of death in 2021. Inside Medicine: Open Access: The million US Covid dead are younger than you think.
Sadly, more than 300,000 deaths in the U.S. could have been averted (NPR: This is how many lives could have been saved with COVID vaccinations in each state)
There has been a culture shift to learn to live with the virus. This is evident almost everywhere from packed restaurants, crowded venues, etc. However, there is currently high transmission and variants that are evading vaccine protection as detailed by Eric Topol, Open Access: The Covid Capitulation
- The United States is now in the midst of a new wave related to Omicron variants BA.2 and BA.2.12.1 with over 90,000 confirmed new cases a day and a 20% increase in hospitalizations in the past 2 weeks…The real number of cases is likely at least 500,000 per day, far greater than any of the US prior waves except Omicron.
- “Infections…beget more cases, …Long Covid, … sickness, hospitalizations and deaths. They are also the underpinning of new variants.”
- CDC currently is vastly underestimating the number of cases leading many towards false confidence, “feeding the myth that the pandemic is over.”
- “As of last week, 43% of new cases were attributable to BA.2.12.1 …. BA.2.12.1 is out-competing BA.2 with its 25% higher transmission rate, which foretells its further rise to dominance across the US in the days and weeks ahead.”
- “This family of Omicron variants with functional impact indicates more rapid evolution of the virus than what we have seen previously.”
- There has been a “reduction in vaccine effectiveness that we are now encountering…[Protection from severe disease] has declined to approximately 80%, particularly taking account the more rapid waning than previously seen.”
- “It’s overly optimistic to think we’ll be done when Omicron variants run their course. Not only are they providing further seeding grounds for more variants of concern, but that path is further facilitated by tens of millions of immunocompromised people around the world, multiple and massive animal reservoirs, and increased frequency of recombinants.”
- “Vaccinated individuals accounted for … 42 per cent [of the deaths] during the Omicron wave. This is attributable to waning of protection, lack of boosters, and the diminished protection against Omicron (BA.1).”
- What needs to be done: More boosters/vaccines (“we rank 60th in the world’s countries for boosters”) along with more medicines, and nasal vaccines which could induce mucosal immunity
My take: Unfortunately, these articles indicate that we have a long way to go. High quality masks are going to be needed at health care settings for a while. For those trying to avoid COVID-19, it will remain important to avoid large indoor gatherings. For public policy/economic policy, we need to continue to fund COVID-19 resources.
Related blog posts:
- Understanding Rapid COVID-19 Testing Compared to PCR Testing
- COVID-19 Outcomes in U.S -Why It Has Been So Bad
- COVID-19 Hospitalization Data from CDC on UnVax, Vax, and Vax + Boosted
- AAP Policy: COVID-19 Vaccine for Children 5 Years and Older
- MMWR: COVID-19 Vaccine Safety 8.7 Million Doses in 5-11 year olds
VT Chu et al. JAMA Intern Med. Published online April 29, 2022. doi:10.1001/jamainternmed.2022.1827. Open Access: Comparison of Home Antigen Testing With RT-PCR and Viral Culture During the Course of SARS-CoV-2 Infection
Background: This was a prospective cohort study of 225 adults and children comparing reverse transcription–polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR)–confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection with antigen testing (QuickVue At-Home OTC COVID-19 Test) and viral culture (January to May 2021)
- Rapid testing (antigen) sensitivity was 64% and viral culture sensitivity was 84% when compared with same-day RT-PCR and viral culture
- Rapid testing (antigen) sensitivity peaked 4 days after illness onset (77%); a second test 1 to 2 days later showed improved sensitivity (81%-85%)
My take: This study shows that a single rapid test is NOT adequate to exclude SARS-CoV-2 infection, especially if they are symptomatic (need to recheck 1-2 days later if negative rapid test). The reliability/accuracy/sensitivity is likely to vary greatly between different rapid tests and may change significantly with different viral variants.
- “The C.D.C. study covered the period from mid-December to late February, during which about 400 children were hospitalized with Covid at the select hospitals participating in the study.”
- “Among the children who tested positive for the virus before or during their hospitalization, three-quarters of them were admitted primarily for Covid, rather than other illnesses, the C.D.C. said.”
Related blog post: COVID-19 Hospitalization Data from CDC on UnVax, Vax, and Vax + Boosted
CA Taylor et al. MMWR 3/18/22, Open Access: COVID-19–Associated Hospitalizations Among Adults During SARS-CoV-2 Delta and Omicron Variant Predominance, by Race/Ethnicity and Vaccination Status — COVID-NET, 14 States, July 2021–January 2022
- During the omicron wave, hospitalization among unvaccinated adults remained 12 times the rates among vaccinated adults who received booster or additional doses and four times the rates among adults who received a primary series, but no booster or additional dose.
- The rate among adults who received a primary series, but no booster or additional dose, was three times the rate among adults who received a booster or additional dose
- A previous study conducted before the Omicron-predominant period that showed increased risk for COVID-19–associated hospitalization among certain racial and ethnic groups, including Black adults, and suggested the increased hospitalization rates were likely multifactorial and could include increased prevalence of underlying medical conditions, increased community-level exposure to and incidence of COVID-19, and poor access to health care in these groups
- The increase in transmissibility of the Omicron variant might have amplified these risks for hospitalization…the increased risk for hospitalization among Black adults during the Omicron-predominant period might also be due, in part, to lower proportions of Black adults receiving both the primary vaccination series and booster doses
My take: This study shows the value of getting vaccinated and booster shot. I would speculate that many of the unvaccinated have had previous infections and this further indicates that vaccination may provide greater protection than immunity following infection.