For a single individual, the burden of obesity can be enormous; for a society, the projected costs for health and economics are hard to fathom (Lancet 2011; 378: 815-25).

By 2030, this report projects that there will be 65 million more obese adults in the US and 11 million more in the UK.  This is expected to cause an additional  6-8.5 million cases of diabetes, 5.7-7.3 million cases of heart disease/stroke, about 500,000 cases of cancer, and loss of 26-55 milion life years.  The medical costs are estimated to increase $48-66 billion/year in the US.

These projections are based on expected increases in the percentage of individuals who are obese.  In 2008, approximately 32% of US adult men were obese based on BMI; in 2030, the projected number is 50-51% for men.  Among US women: 35% in 2008 –> 45-52% in 2030.

To flatten the curve on spending, we will need to look at flattening other curves.

Additional references:

• A liver disease tsunami
• -NEJM 2011; 365: 1597. Persistence of hormonal adaptations with weight loss. Due to persistent changes in hormones like leptin & peptide YY, hard to keep wt off -result is increased appetite.
• -NEJM 2009; 360: 859. Composition of diet does not seem to be important. Total calories important.
• -Pediatrics 2007; 120: suppl 4: S164-S287.
• -NEJM 2007; 357: 370. obestiy spreads in social network.  Your friends may be more influential than your genetics.
• -Gastroenterology 2007; 132: 2085-2276. Special issue on obesity issues.
• -NEJM 2006; 355: 1593. Case review on obesity c DDx and mgt.
• -Pediatrics 2003; 112: 424. Position paper on prevention in childhood.
• -Gastroenterology 2001; 120: 669-681. (review)
• -J Pediatr 2005; 147: 429. TV viewing predicts adult BMI.
• -Lancet 2001; 357: 505-8. One extra soda/day incr risk of obesity by 60%
• -NEJM 1999; 341: 1097. BMI & mortality.