How Often Do Adults Develop Celiac Disease After Negative Testing?

RS Choung et al. Gastroenterol 2020; 158: 151-9.  

Full abstract link: (which has link to full text): “Community-Based Study of Celiac Disease Autoimmunity Progression in Adults”

Methods: In this prospective cohort study, waste blood samples from residents of a community were tested for CeD autoimmunity at 2 time points. We analyzed waste blood samples from 15,551 adults for tTGA and, if titer results were above 2 U/mL, for endomysial antibody. The median interval between the two time points was 8.8 years.


  • Of the serum samples collected at the first time point, 15,398 had negative results for tTGA, and 153 had positive results for tTGA (>4 U/mL). Based on medical records, 6 individuals received a diagnosis of celiac disease, for a cumulative incidence of celiac disease diagnosis of 0.06% over 10 years.
  • Forty-nine (0.32%) individuals with a negative result from the first serologic test for tTGA had a positive result from the second test
  • Among the 153 adults who were tTGA positive at the first time point, 31 (20%) had a subsequent diagnosis of celiac disease, 81 (53%) remained positive for tTGA without a clinical diagnosis of celiac disease, and 41 (27%) had negative test results for tTGA at the second time point.

2 thoughts on “How Often Do Adults Develop Celiac Disease After Negative Testing?

  1. Pingback: Celiac Studies -Increasing Prevalence (Italy) and Nonadherence Risks | gutsandgrowth

  2. Pingback: Best Screening For Celiac At All Ages | gutsandgrowth

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